RDDT

Fair value $311 a share. Reddit sells advertising against conversations that people trust because other people wrote them, and it is converting that into money very fast: revenue grew more than 60% for eight straight quarters, to $805 million in Q2 2026, at a 29% GAAP operating margin, with almost no capital spending. Our central case slows that growth to 36% in 2027 and 13% in 2031, with revenue of $9.2 billion and a 39% operating margin in 2031, and values it at the method's default exit.

The answer on AI search. On the evidence through Q2 2026, Google's AI Overviews and other AI answers are taking Reddit's search visitors, not sending more: U.S. logged-out daily users stopped growing and fell late in the quarter, and machine-translated pages lost search rank abroad. Because a visitor from search sees roughly a third of the ads a logged-in user sees, that loss by itself is worth about $4 a share per point of yearly decline; the risk that matters is the world where the same AI answers also starve the funnel to logged-in users, slow ad pricing and end the Google licensing deal, which is our bear case at $115.

Terms used throughout: the central case is our most likely outcome; the bear and bull cases are coherent worlds below and above it, not the central plus or minus a percentage. DAUq is Reddit's daily active uniques, users it can identify on a given day; logged-in users have an account and are signed in, logged-out users are not and mostly arrive from search engines. The long fade extends our forecast 15 years past 2031, with growth and returns on new capital fading toward the economy's, and values it at 2031. The outside view values 2031 operating profit at the median multiple peers traded at over the last ten year-ends. The exit price is the mean of the two.

1. What Reddit sells, who pays and what limits it

Reddit is about 100,000 active communities (subreddits), each run by volunteer moderators who set its rules, holding 26 billion posts and comments. Users come to ask, compare and argue: the CEO says about 40% of conversations are commercial, people deciding what to buy, watch or where to go (management claim, Q1 2026 call). Revenue is 95% advertising (advertising $761.6M of $804.9M in Q2 2026, 10-Q note 3); the rest, "other revenue", is mostly licensing the corpus to AI companies.

Who pays. Advertisers, buying through an auction on the home feed and conversation pages. The ten largest were 21% of 2025 revenue (25% in 2024, 10-K). Active advertisers grew more than 70% in the year to Q2 2026, the mid-market and small-business channel doubled, 11 of 15 verticals grew over 50%, and more than half of revenue comes from credit-line relationships (COO, Q2 2026 call; management claims). Advertisers pay for both reach and intent: conversion volume grew over 100% and click volume over 30% in Q2 2026 (management claim).

Users. 130.3 million daily uniques in Q2 2026 (U.S. 53.2M, international 77.1M) and 514.6 million weekly. They split very unevenly:

Source: earnings releases (reported). Q2 2026 is the last quarter Reddit reports the logged-in and logged-out split (CFO, Q2 2026 call).

Two things stand out. Nearly all the growth in users for two years has been logged-out, from search engines and, abroad, from machine-translated pages; U.S. logged-in users have barely moved. And money per user has compounded at 30-50% a year, which is where the growth in revenue came from: ad revenue grew on both more impressions and higher prices (Q2 2026 letter).

What limits it. First, traffic it does not control: Reddit relies "in part" on search engines, mostly Google, and says a change in algorithms, interface or "AI-generated search or answer features" could cut traffic (10-Q risk factors). Second, users who come once: the CEO describes a histogram of days per week whose two tallest bars are one day and seven days (Q1 2026 call), and new-user retention is "lower than others in the space" (CFO, Q2 2026 call). Third, its own product: the feed is "a year to 18 months behind the state of the art" (CEO, Goldman Sachs conference, September 2026), and ad load is "quite low compared to peers", with no ads yet in search (COO, Q1 2026 call). The second and third are also the upside.

Ad load and pricing against Meta and Google. Reddit does not disclose ad load, impressions or price per ad, so the comparison is per user. In Q2 2026 Reddit made $11.85 per U.S. daily user and $6.18 worldwide; Meta made $16.89 per daily person worldwide ($60.80 billion over 3.60 billion), with impressions up 14% and price per ad up 12% (Meta release, 2026-07-29); Pinterest made $8.30 per monthly U.S. and Canada user (Pinterest release, 2026-08-04). Google gives no comparable figure. So a Reddit user in the richest ad market still yields less than Meta's average person worldwide. That gap is the room the central case uses: U.S. revenue per logged-in-equivalent user rises about 2.3 times from 2026 to 2031.

Data licensing. Other revenue was $140.7M in 2025 and $82.0M in H1 2026 (+15% and +24% in Q1 and Q2). The 2024 prospectus listed $203.0M of aggregate licensing contract value on two-to-three-year terms (secondhand, TechCrunch 2024-02-22); Google pays about $60M a year (press, CNBC 2026-07-22 relaying the Wall Street Journal) and OpenAI is the other large buyer (CEO, July 2026, press). Remaining obligations on long-term licensing contracts fell from $143.7M at 2025 year-end ($24.8M of it in 2027) to $92.1M at 2026-06-30 ($30.1M in 2027) (10-K and 10-Q note 3), so the contracts run out early in 2027. How durable it is: the content is not replaceable and is "used for training, post-training, grounding, and as a search index" (CEO, Q2 2026 call), and Reddit has sued Perplexity over scraping (press, CNBC 2025-10-23); against that, the CEO would not rule out not renewing Google and said "the range of outcomes is wide", and the Wall Street Journal reported Reddit discussing cutting off Google's AI access (press). We hold licensing at the 2026 level in the central (a renewal at 1.0x), half in the bear and double in the bull. It is a small part of the value: renewal at 0.3x costs $5 a share and 2x adds $7, because licensing is about 5% of revenue.

Stock pay and dilution. Stock pay and related taxes were 17.7% of revenue in 2025 ($389.4M) and 12.6% in H1 2026, and Q3 2026 is guided at $140-155M as older grants are replaced (CFO). Fully diluted shares were 207.0M at 2026-06-30, up 0.2% in a year after buybacks; gross of buybacks dilution was 1% in the quarter, and the target is 1-3% a year before buybacks (CFO, Q2 2026 call). We charge stock pay as a cost (15% of revenue in 2027 falling to 12% from 2030, after the review; section 6) and hold the count at 202.3M shares (shares outstanding plus all 10.0M options; the 4.7M unvested restricted units are left out because their cost is in the stock-pay line). Three points of revenue more stock pay is worth -$22 a share.

2. Recent results beat the guide every quarter

Reddit gives one quarter of guidance, revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and stock pay). In the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 revenue beat the guide's midpoint every time, by a median 10.3% (range 7.5% to 19.0%), and adjusted EBITDA beat by a median 0.86 of each dollar of revenue beat (output.txt). Q2 2026: revenue $804.9M against a $715-725M guide (+11.8%), adjusted EBITDA $342.8M against $285-295M, GAAP operating income $231.7M, net income $252.8M. Operating cash flow crossed $1 billion over the last twelve months; capital spending was $1.1M in the quarter (Q2 2026 release).

The guide for Q3 2026 is revenue $860-870M (47-49% growth) and adjusted EBITDA $385-395M. The CFO cut the full-year stock-pay guide from "high teens" to "low to mid teens" of revenue and set a 50% long-term adjusted EBITDA margin (management claim). The same call disclosed that search referrals "were choppy" and fell late in the quarter, U.S. DAUq fell 300,000 from Q1, and machine-translated traffic declined (CEO).

3. The forecast and the value

The full model is model.py, its printout output.txt and the inputs with sources assumptions.md.

How it is built. Advertising revenue in each geography is revenue per logged-in user times logged-in users plus 0.35 of logged-out users. The 0.35 is our assumption: the COO says an impression is worth the same for both and logged-in users simply see more of them (Q1 2026 call); the CEO says direct and app users are "worth multiples more" than search visitors (Q2 2026 call). Costs before stock pay rise by 0.45 of each revenue dollar added (0.43 in the year to H1 2026). 2026 is half reported, Q3 at the guide plus the median beat and Q4 at +55%.

The table is after the review (section 6): U.S. logged-in growth cut to +1%, +1.5% then +2%, and stock pay raised to 15% of revenue in 2027 falling to 12% from 2030.

Where this differs: from guidance, we take the median beat for Q3 and do not credit management's margin target beyond its own path (our 2031 margin, 51.4%, lands slightly above the 50% target only because costs follow revenue at the recent rate). From history, growth falls from 61% to 36% in 2027: the comparison doubles, and money per user cannot compound at 50% for long from a base that is already 70% of Meta's worldwide average. From peers, our 39% GAAP operating margin in 2031 is a large-platform margin, which Reddit's 91% gross margin and almost no capital spending allow. It is far above the 20.1% of 2025, which carried stock pay of 17.7% of revenue; the 2031 margin is the adjusted EBITDA margin (51%, against 38% in 2025 and 42.6% in Q2 2026) less 12% stock pay.

Value. Cost of equity 9.47%: the 5.29% risk-free rate plus a beta of 0.995 (the median Blume-adjusted beta of META, GOOGL, PINS, SNAP, YELP, TRIP and TTD) times Damodaran's 4.20% premium. Net cash and securities of $2.79 billion, $0.60 billion of tax losses and credits Reddit will use soon, and owner cash since July are counted today ($3,596M, $17.77 a share); owner free cash flow is paid out as earned. The exit price is $413: the long fade gives $386 (25.0 times 2032 after-tax operating profit) and the outside view $441 (24.9 times 2031 operating profit). They are 14% apart, so the forecast, not the method, sets the value.

The exit multiple: the method's default, checked against growth. Reddit has positive GAAP operating income in one year of the last ten, so the method uses the peers' ten-year median alone: META 21.0x, GOOGL 25.2x, YELP 30.1x and TRIP 24.7x (Pinterest, Snap and The Trade Desk have fewer than five profitable years in the window), 24.9x. The question the 2026-10-26 ruling asks is whether that anchor was earned at a different growth rate. It was not, materially: the four peers grew revenue at a median 14.4% in the years their multiples count (META 24.4%, GOOGL 16.7%, YELP 12.0%, TRIP 3.4%), and our central grows 14% in 2031 and 13% in 2032 (exit_choices.txt). So we make no change from the default.

The judgment range across defensible exit choices (central forecast fixed; output.txt):

Does the default rest on two small peers? No. Half the anchor is Yelp and Tripadvisor, but dropping any one of the four peers moves the median between 24.7x and 25.2x ($310-313), and Meta and Alphabet alone give 23.1x ($301) (exit_choices.txt). Yelp's own median is inflated by years of thin profit (74.9x in 2019 and 75.5x in 2021); it does not move the median because the median of four ignores the extremes.

Our judgment range is $294-311: from the fade alone to the default, with Meta and Alphabet alone in between. The rows above it rest on a software sample and an era (2010-2021) whose multiples ran 1.76 times their anchor, which is a level of that decade, not a growth effect.

What moves the value most (output.txt, central $311):

Each $1 billion of 2031 revenue from higher U.S. pricing is worth about $53 a share. The beta is the largest single choice. The method uses the peer median (0.995) by rule, and the rule exists because own betas are noisy: Reddit has traded only since March 2024, and its own beta of 2.05 raw (1.70 Blume-adjusted, a 12.45% cost of equity; the advocate's market data capture, review/evidence.txt) is measured over a span that includes the listing and a retail-driven stock. Damodaran's internet-software industry beta, 1.55 unlevered (January 2026), sits between. At Reddit's own beta the value is $239, at Damodaran's $267; both are well above the price. The two betas move the value by more than 10%, so the choice is flagged for the reviewers (flag 7) and we show all three.

Changed at the market-pass stage (2026-10-26, after the blind commits). alpha research odds refused two driver ranges under its median rule (the central must sit 29-71% of the way from low to high), and one alternative world's licensing range. Central values did not change, and no fair value, bear, bull or exit changed:

Running the odds to confirm the file printed the simulation's summary to the analyst, including the chance of the price in each world: that is a view of where the price sits relative to our scenarios. It came after both blind commits and after these bounds were chosen; nothing was changed because of it. The market pass writes odds.json.

4. The price pays for our bear case's business

This section and the next were written after the price, targets and estimates were read (unblinded); nothing in sections 1-3 or the model changed. The figures are in market.py and its printout market.txt.

At $138.47 the market pays for about the business in our bear case. Our bear's operations, revenue of $5.5 billion in 2031 at a 29% GAAP operating margin, are worth $134 at our default exit multiple of 24.9 times operating profit, and $115 at the bear's 17.2 times. No single driver gets our central case down to the price within its range: the nearest are costs rising by 0.70 of each revenue dollar added ($174) and U.S. revenue per user growing 15 points a year slower than ours ($184). Moving every driver together, the price needs them 80% of the way from our central to our bear: revenue of $6.1 billion in 2031, 12% a year from 2026, at a 31% operating margin and an exit at 18.7 times (figures after the review; market.txt).

How the price got here. The shares rose 13% on 2026-05-01, the day after Q1 results, and fell 21% to $140.67 on 2026-07-31, the day after Q2, on six times their average volume: the quarter in which Reddit said search referrals fell late and U.S. daily users dropped 300,000 (daily bars). They are down from $263.50 on 2026-01-09 and above the year's low of $119.27 on 2026-03-30; over six months they fell 13.6% against 10.3% for the communication-services fund XLC (research-check).

The Street. Analysts' revenue is close to ours for three years and then lower: $3.4 billion, $4.5 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026-2028 against our $3.55 billion, $4.81 billion and $5.94 billion (we are 4-7% higher, mostly because we add Reddit's median beat to each guide), then $6.2 billion and $7.3 billion for 2029-2030 (22 and 14 analysts) against our $7.03 billion and $8.11 billion (11-13% higher). The Street's revenue path run through our model, by slowing revenue per user 3.6 points a year in both regions and leaving everything else central, is worth $252. That one shift matches only 2030; matching all five Street years and keeping our 2031-32 growth gives $299 on the blind model (the auditor, review/codex-rddt.md). Its average 12-month target, $202.52, discounted a year at our cost of equity is $185; our value is 1.68 times it. Of the blind gap to the Street path ($77), $54 is U.S. and $23 international revenue per user (the auditor); the rest of the gap to the targets is what the market pays for the Street's path, well under our exit multiple. We have not modelled the Street's EPS. The targets are falling, from $222.06 on average over the year to $198.53 over the quarter.

5. Where we differ from the market, and what settles it

The market is pricing the search bear as the likely world; we give it a quarter of the weight. Section 6 answers what the review found when it built the world in which $138 is right.

The market's case at its strongest: U.S. daily users fell in Q2 2026 and Reddit then stopped reporting the logged-in split, so investors cannot tell whether AI answers are taking only drive-by visitors or also the users who pay; the Google licensing deal ends in early 2027 under open negotiation; and a shareholder suit says Reddit misled investors about AI Overviews. Our cases answer the first on dated evidence only in part: U.S. logged-in users grew 1% in a year, which is the bear's funnel, not ours. Our central rests on U.S. revenue per user still growing 36% in 2027, and that is an assumption from the last two years' 51-54%, not a dated commitment.

What settles it. Q3 results on 2026-10-29: U.S. daily users holding 53 million and revenue near our $954 million keep the central; U.S. daily users below 52 million is the first quarter of the bear's user path. Then U.S. revenue per user in 2027: below 20% growth in any quarter moves us toward the bear, and with it toward the price. We concede the central to the market if U.S. daily users fall for two quarters and the Google renewal lapses or changes Reddit's search placement.

Alpha's view, 2026-10-26. Alpha, the quantitative model, scores Reddit 90 of 100 (tier Strong), with expectations A, growth A, quality A, momentum C and valuation D; it gives no rank today and flags its data as limited, because growth comparisons span large changes in the business (alpha ticker analyze RDDT). Its top drivers are the return on capital and the growth in operating income per share; its top drags are slowing growth in free cash flow and revenue and the price-to-sales ratio. We agree on the returns and on the slowdown, which our central builds in (61% growth in 2026 to 36% in 2027). We differ on valuation: Alpha reads a high price-to-sales ratio against its universe, we read a price that already assumes our bear's business.

The chart, as timing only. A technical quick read on 2026-10-26 grades the chart D: a declining trend, below the 21-day ($151), 50-day ($153) and 200-day ($162) averages, with the 200-day still falling (it was $170 a month earlier). Today's $138.47 is below the $140.05 low set after Q2 results (2026-08-03); the next support is the March low of $119.27. The shares fell 19% in the three months to 2026-10-23 against a 4% rise in QQQ. Results are three sessions away. It improves to C on a close back above the 50-day average. The grade says when, never what Reddit is worth, and it moved no number here.

6. How each review finding changed the value

Two outside reviewers read the committed draft at the market pass (commit 0709cc5) with the price in hand: an auditor (Codex) who reran every script, and an advocate (Claude Opus) who argued for Avoid. Their scripts and outputs are in review/. The value moved from $339 to $311 (bear $120 to $115, bull $738 to $723). Both changes rest on Reddit's own releases and guidance dated before today, not on the price; both lower the value, toward the price, and we say so.

Together: $339.24 to $311.31 (-$27.93; the two alone sum to -$28.50, the interaction +$0.57; output.txt and the isolating runs in process.md). The view is unchanged: Buy.

Flag 16: a heavily traded price outside nearly all our scenarios. The blind odds put 92% of our simulated values above $138.47. Part of that was our error: the bear world in the simulation was milder than our own bear case, and fixing it brings P to 82%, with the bear world's median at $124, below the price. The rest we take as the warning the flag intends. The advocate's evidence-built world, with revenue of $6.8 billion in 2031 at a 36% margin, is worth $195 at our exit and $151 with both today's peer multiples and Reddit's own beta; it reaches the price only at an exit of about 12.5 times operating profit, and Avoid below 9.8 times (review/worlds.txt). Our joint reverse solve needs every driver 80% of the way to the bear with an 18.7 times exit (market.txt). So the market is paying for something close to our bear: a search-dependent business valued like Yelp and Tripadvisor today rather than like Meta and Alphabet over ten years. Where our ranges may be too narrow is the exit: the simulation's lowest outside-view multiple is 12.8 times (the bear world's low end), and today Yelp trades below that and Tripadvisor at about it. We do not widen it toward the price; we name it. We concede the central if U.S. daily users fall for two quarters and U.S. revenue per user grows below 20% in a 2027 quarter: that is the bear's path, and the market's.

Flag 23: the odds' 90th percentile ($687) is 5% below the bull ($723). The simulation does reach our optimistic case: 348 of its 4,000 draws (8.7%) value Reddit at or above $723 (odds.json), so the bull is about a one-in-eleven outcome rather than one-in-ten. The gap comes from the shared case spread, as on the Atlassian and Salesforce reports: the method sets the bull's outside view at the pooled 75th percentile of realised over anchor (1.456 times, 36.3x), which is also the top of our exit-ratio range, so few draws sit there, while the simulation's own exit-price draw is centred on 1. The bull's operations at the default exit are worth $612 (output.txt: the case spread adds $111), below the 90th percentile. The flag changes no value: the central $311, bear $115 and bull $723 stand, and the ranges stay as registered.

7. The bear case: search traffic falls, and the rest follows

The world. Google's AI Overviews and AI Mode, and the AI assistants, answer the question on their own page. Reddit's search visitors fall 10% a year in the U.S. in 2027 and 2028 and keep falling more slowly; machine translated pages lose rank abroad. Fewer visitors means fewer conversions to logged-in and app users, so U.S. logged-in users stop growing. The commercial-intent questions, the impressions advertisers pay most for, are answered by AI first, so revenue per user slows from 50% growth to 26% in 2027 and 5-8% later. Google and OpenAI renew licensing at half. Reddit spends to replace the traffic (0.55 of each revenue dollar added) and keeps stock pay at 15-16% of revenue. Global DAUq falls from 130 million to 118 million; revenue grows 20% in 2027 and 6-9% a year after, to $5.5 billion in 2031 at a 29% operating margin. At the bear's exit multiple (17.2x, the pooled 25th percentile) the value is $115.

How much of the bear is search (output.txt, one driver group at a time from the central $311):

The search visitors themselves cost $28. The bear is mostly what follows from them: the funnel and the pricing.

Why the other side could be right. Reddit's own disclosures support this bear more than its words do. Its logged-in base in the U.S. grew 1% in a year, after two years of product and marketing work; the CFO called paid marketing "mixed" and retention the "key unlocker"; the company stopped reporting the logged-in split; and a shareholder suit says it misled investors about the effect of AI Overviews (10-Q note 9). If the commercial questions move into AI answers, Reddit's pricing growth has no floor we can date.

The de-rating path. If our central forecast holds but the market keeps paying the bear's all-in 15.8 times 2031 operating profit, the exit is $279 and the value today $227, 27% below the central. What would keep the multiple there: U.S. DAUq falling for several quarters with the split no longer reported, so the market cannot tell drive-by losses from core losses; a lapsed Google deal read as a broken relationship with Reddit's biggest traffic source; and growth slowing toward the 13% our own central reaches by 2031.

8. Next results preview: Q3 2026, reported 2026-10-29 after the close

Date from the company's release on Business Wire (2026-10-15): results after the close on Thursday 2026-10-29, call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific. Forecasts from the guide plus the eight-quarter beat record (output.txt):

The one that moves value most is revenue: each $10M of Q3 revenue above ours, at the median flow-through to EBITDA and carried as a higher level of revenue per user, is worth about $1.12 a share (output.txt). A U.S. DAUq below 52 million would be the first quarter of the bear's user path.

9. Catalysts and falsifiers

• 2026-10-29, Q3 2026 results (above). The first quarter without the logged-in split; watch whether U.S. DAUq holds 53 million.
• Early 2027, Google and OpenAI licensing renewals (contracts run out, 10-Q note 3). Renewal near or above $170M a year supports the central; a lapse with Google that also changes Reddit's search placement moves toward the bear.
• Q4 2026 results, about early February 2027 (not announced): the 2027 shape. Our central needs 2027 revenue growth near 36% (35.6%).
• Falsifier for the central: U.S. revenue per user growing below 20% in any 2027 quarter (our path is 36% for the year), or two quarters of U.S. DAUq declines.
• Falsifier for the bear: U.S. DAUq above 55 million by Q4 2027 with revenue per user still growing 25% or more.

10. Sources

Primary: Reddit 10-K FY2025 (filed 2026-02-06), 10-Q Q1 and Q2 2026 (filed 2026-05-01 and 2026-07-31), earnings releases and shareholder letters Q2 2024 to Q2 2026, 8-Ks to 2026-08-12 (SEC EDGAR, fetched 2026-10-26, masked); Q1 and Q2 2026 calls and the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference (September 2026) transcripts (market data/Quartr, secondhand transcripts of primary speech); Meta release 2026-07-29 and Pinterest release 2026-08-04 (EDGAR); Market data statements and peer histories (fetched 2026-10-26); Damodaran industry betas, January 2026 data. Results date: Reddit release on Business Wire, 2026-10-15. Press: CNBC 2026-07-22 and 2026-07-30, TechCrunch 2024-02-22, CNBC 2025-10-23.

RDDT — Reddit, Inc. — research view (market: Buy)
As of 2026-10-26 · partly unblinded: before the model was committed (04d7e26) the analyst
saw a sell-side 2026 free-cash-flow figure quoted at a September conference, and
directions of the share price (down year to date, down sharply after Q1, an 11% fall on
2026-07-30) in transcripts and headlines. No quote, multiple, target or rating was read.

Fair value today      $311 per diluted share, discounting at a 9.47% cost of equity (blind
                      $339; two review findings, -$28). At Reddit's own beta (1.70
                      Blume-adjusted) it is $239. Weighting the bear, central and bull
                      cases 25/50/25 (our weights, not calibrated) gives $365.
Price                 $138.47, last regular-session trade 2026-10-26 15:59:59 ET
                      (official close 2026-10-23 $144.25)  →  125% upside to fair value
Five-year exit price  $413 a share on 2031-12-31: the mean of a long fade of Reddit's
                      returns toward its cost of capital ($386) and what peers have been
                      valued at, 24.9 times operating profit ($441). Fading over 10 or 20
                      years instead gives $384 or $444.
Five-year return      31.7% a year from $138.47 to the central exit, payouts included, against
                      the 9.47% cost of equity (bear 4.6%, bull 57.1%; market.txt)
Bear / bull today     $115 / $723. The bear is the world where AI answers in search keep
                      the click; the bull is Reddit becoming a daily destination.
Confidence            22%: the share of our 4,000 simulated fair values within ±20% of the
                      central $311 ($249-373; confidence.txt); subjective, not calibrated
Moat                  21 years of human conversation, organised into communities that people
                      and AI models both seek out by name; no one else can rebuild it.
Market expects        About our bear case's business: revenue near $5.5-6.1 billion in 2031
                      (10-12% a year from 2026) at a 29-31% GAAP operating margin. Our bear's
                      operations at our default exit multiple are worth $134 (market.txt)
Price needs           No single headline driver reaches the price within its range (the
                      nearest: costs of 0.70 per revenue dollar added gives $174, U.S. revenue
                      per user 15 points a year below ours $184); jointly, every driver 80% of
                      the way from our central to our bear, exit at 18.7x (odds.json, market.txt)
Odds in our scenarios P(price justified): 82%, in the over-50% band (subjective, not
                      calibrated); simulated median $287, 10th to 90th $111-687. The blind
                      odds said 92%; the simulated bear world was milder than our bear case
                      (an auditor finding, now fixed)
Key driver            U.S. advertising revenue per user: 5 points a year less growth is -$56
                      a share; the bear's pricing path alone takes $58 off the central.
Street                Average 12-month target $202.52 (median $200, range $110-265); none set
                      in the last month, 15 over the quarter average $198.53, 51 over the year
                      $222.06: falling (market data via research-check, 2026-10-26). An expectations
                      reference, not validation